Chance of new Bitcoin lows ‘extremely slim’ as long-term holders’ supply tops 15M BTC
first published 2026-05-21T13:23:00Z
Long-term holder (LTH) supply — addresses holding BTC ≥155 days — climbed to 16.3 million BTC, up from ~14.12M around October's record high and roughly +200k BTC in the past month. The only higher reading was 16.4M in January 2024 before nearly 2M BTC was distributed by LTHs during the subsequent rally. LTH supply had mostly ranged between 14–16M since the U.S. spot ETF launch but now appears to have broken a 2.5-year downtrend, signaling renewed accumulation by long-term holders amid current depressed prices.
AI Analysis
LTH supply rose to 16.3M BTC (from ~14.12M in October) with ~+200k BTC added in the past month, and is near the only higher January 2024 reading of 16.4M — a level that preceded ~2M BTC distribution by LTHs. The break of a 2.5-year downtrend and recent accumulation are factual bullish indicators, but the prior January distribution tempers the immediate market-moving implication for short-term traders.
Expected Investor Sentiment: Neutral
Potential Market Impact: Significant
Source Articles
- Bitcoin's long-term holder supply approaches record high, breaking multi-year downtrend - CoinDesk
- Bitcoin ‘smart money’ stacks: long-term holder supply nears record 16.3M BTC - Crypto News
- Bitcoin due '5%+' move as analysis stays bullish on BTC price outlook - Cointelegraph
- Bitcoin accumulation trends weaken as realized losses jump to $600M - Cointelegraph
- Chance of new Bitcoin lows ‘extremely slim’ as long-term holders’ supply tops 15M BTC - Cointelegraph