Traders and prediction markets have largely abandoned expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026, pricing the federal funds target at 3.50%–3.75% through the year. CME FedWatch shows 95%–98% odds of no change at upcoming meetings. Kalshi and Polymarket wagers exceed $42M betting the Fed will keep rates unchanged at the June 17, 2026 meeting. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is seen as hawkish and favors balance-sheet reduction. Elevated core inflation, a resilient labor market, and oil-price pressures from the Middle East conflict are cited as drivers. The repricing has lifted short-term yields, pressured equities and crypto (including Bitcoin), and strengthened the dollar; June 17 will be watched for Warsh’s first formal signals.

CME FedWatch shows 95%–98% odds of no change; Kalshi and Polymarket traders placed >$42M betting no change on June 17; Warsh is described as structurally hawkish; repricing has lifted short-term yields and pressured equities and crypto (including Bitcoin).