Whale Alert in Academic Research
The effect of Whale Alert on the crypto market has been studied in various papers by universities and industry groups. Below is an overview of the most important papers published. Researchers affiliated to universities or research groups can contact us for free data sets.
Available Research Papers
The Moby Dick effect: Contagious Bitcoin whales in the crypto
market
Finance Research Letters 85
This study examines the Bitcoin Whale contagion on the cryptocurrency market. We
built a whale signal considering transfers from wallets to exchanges and vice
versa, reported on the “Whale Alert” Telegram group. The researchers then
measured whale
contagion on the returns of the 15 cryptocurrencies with the largest market
capitalization using time-varying parameters VAR at 1, 6, and 24 h after the
transfer. The results indicated a significant contagion of Bitcoin whales,
mainly after 6 and 24 h. These results provide a new perspective on the factors
influencing contagion in the cryptocurrency market and its impact on financial
stability.
Forecasting Bitcoin Volatility Through On-Chain and
Whale-Alert Tweet Analysis Using the Q-Learning Algorithm
IEEE Access Vol. 11
This paper explores Bitcoin price volatility prediction by combining
blockchain
on-chain data with Whale Alert’s Twitter data. The authors employ a
reinforcement learning approach (Q-learning) to classify and leverage Whale
Alert tweets about large transactions. They report that merging Whale Alert
tweet signals with on-chain metrics enhances the model’s ability to predict
Bitcoin price trends and volatility. The results indicate that
large-transfer
alerts (like Whale Alert’s notifications) provide useful information for
anticipating market movements, thereby confirming the practical value of
Whale
Alert data in volatility forecasting.
Forecasting Bitcoin volatility spikes from whale transactions
and CryptoQuant data using Synthesizer Transformer models
Papers 2211.08281, arXiv.org
An academic study focusing on extreme volatility in Bitcoin, which
integrates
on-chain metrics with Whale Alert’s large-transaction tweets. The authors
use a
deep
learning Transformer model and show that incorporating Whale Alert tweet
data
alongside on-chain analytics improves the prediction of next-day Bitcoin
volatility
spikes. The authors conclude that Whale Alert’s feed of big crypto movements
serves
as a valuable signal, helping the model outperform baselines in forecasting
volatility.
Bitcoin under the Microscope
British Accounting Review
A study that leverages Whale Alert’s blockchain data to help identify and
label
major crypto addresses and uses wallets and entities identified by Whale
Alert
alongside other sources to link Bitcoin addresses to known entities, aiding
analysis of the Bitcoin network’s structure and participants.
The destabilising effects of cryptocurrency cybercriminality
Economics Letters, 191
The researchers use Whale Alert as a data source for documenting hacking events
and
examines market effects of cryptocurrency cybercrime. It relies on Whale
Alert’s
public alerts to identify major hacking incidents and measure their impact
on
crypto prices.
Market behaviors around bankruptcy and frozen funds
withdrawal: Trading stranded assets on FTX
Journal of Economics and Business, 144
Cites Whale Alert in analyzing the FTX collapse. The authors reference a
Whale
Alert report of 22,999,999 FTT (around US$585 million) transferred from an
unknown wallet to Binance, an event first flagged by Whale Alert that
signaled
trouble at FTX. Whale Alert’s detection of this large transfer (later
confirmed
by Binance’s CEO) is used as a key timestamp in their study of market
behavior
during the FTX bankruptcy.
The Intraday Bitcoin Response to Tether Minting and Burning
Events: Asymmetry, Investor Sentiment, and ‘Whale Alerts’ on Twitter
Finance Research Letters (Vol. 49)
The author investigates how Bitcoin’s price reacts when Tether (USDT) is
minted
or burned, and specifically examines the impact of Whale Alert Twitter
announcements. The author finds that Bitcoin’s price response to Tether
minting
is significantly stronger when the event is publicly announced by Whale
Alert on
Twitter. In fact, investors do not react much to the minting itself until
Whale
Alert tweets about it, at which point Bitcoin sees a short-term price
increase,
especially under bullish market sentiment. This study is the first to
demonstrate that Whale Alert’s real-time large-transfer alerts can influence
cryptocurrency markets.
Whale Alerts: Are They Tradable?
Presto Labs Research Report, January 2025
An industry whitepaper that evaluates whether alerts of large crypto
transactions (such as those from Whale Alert) can be used as reliable
trading
signals. The report provides an overview of Whale Alert services – noting
that
Whale Alert (launched in 2018) became the pioneering tool for real-time
tracking
of large on-chain transactions across multiple blockchains. The authors
analyze
a dataset of big Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana transfers into exchanges (e.g.
Binance) and measure subsequent price changes. The
paper also discusses Whale Alert’s history and how its success spurred many
copycat, underscoring Whale Alert’s prominence as the go-to crypto
whale tracker.
The Impact of Sentiment and Engagement of Twitter Posts on
Cryptocurrency Price Movement
Finance Research Letters (Vol. 65)
This study examines how Twitter post sentiment and user engagement affect
daily
price moves of top cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH, DOGE, ADA, XRP) during
2021–2022.
While the paper’s main focus is on overall sentiment metrics, it mentions
Whale
Alert in a broader context as an example of influential crypto-related
Twitter
activity. Whale Alert is brought up as part of
the discussion on market-moving news on Twitter, highlighting that
high-impact
alerts (e.g. large transaction announcements) are a notable component of
crypto
Twitter sentiment.