Cardano shows daily falling-wedge and RSI bullish divergence; December losses, failure to reclaim $0.36 and support near $0.338–$0.34 raise risk of $0.30–$0.32 downside

first published 2025-12-26T07:22:26Z

ADA has fallen ~25% from its December high and ~63% from its October peak; market cap dropped from $35.1B to ~$12.9B. On-chain fundamentals weakened: DeFi TVL fell from $544M (Aug) to $215.5M, stablecoin market cap declined from $40.48M (Nov) to $37.68M, and futures open interest fell from $1.72B (Oct) to $651M. Price action shows a daily falling-wedge since early October and an RSI bullish divergence. A confirmed breakout above the 20-day SMA at $0.39 could target $0.51 (~45% upside); a breakdown below the wedge could push price to $0.30.

AI Analysis

Technical indicators point to a potential bullish reversal (daily falling-wedge + RSI bullish divergence and a concrete breakout level at the 20-day SMA $0.39 with a $0.51 target). Offsetting this, on-chain fundamentals have weakened: market cap fell from $35.1B to $12.9B, DeFi TVL dropped from $544M to $215.5M, stablecoin cap fell from $40.48M to $37.68M, and futures OI declined from $1.72B to $651M. The article provides a specific actionable trigger and quantified targets, but also documents deteriorating on-chain metrics.

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