Bitcoin outlook mixed for 2026 — $21.4B spot‑ETF inflows (led by BlackRock) contrast with forecasts of weakness into late 2026

first published 2025-12-31T16:10:14Z

Analysts and early Bitcoin investors expect the 2025 downturn to extend into 2026, with Michael Terpin forecasting a potential BTC bottom near $60,000 in Q4 2026 and only ~20% chance of new highs before the cycle low. Macro drivers (Fed policy, US midterm outcomes) and the next halving could influence recovery timing. Despite price weakness and a deviation from the four‑year cycle, adopters expect stronger real‑world utility in 2026 from neobanks, Bitcoin‑backed stablecoins, Square merchant integrations and broader Lightning Network use.

AI Analysis

The summary states analysts expect the 2025 downturn to continue into 2026 and Michael Terpin projects a possible bottom near $60,000 in Q4 2026 with only ~20% chance of new highs before the cycle low (bearish). The piece cites macro timing factors (Fed policy, US midterms, the next halving) and describes improvements to payment infrastructure (neobanks, BTC‑backed stablecoins, Square integrations, Lightning) which are structural but not immediate market-moving catalysts, so short-term trading impact is low.

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