JPMorgan warns Iran conflict could 'quickly' lift aluminum toward $4,000/ton; oil and gold also face upside
first published 2026-03-06T08:04:36Z
J.P. Morgan’s co-head of economic research Joseph Lupton says a US/Israel military operation against Iran could push aluminum, oil and gold higher. Aluminum — with a 2025 Middle East net exportable surplus of ~5 million mt (≈7% of global production) — could “quickly run toward $4,000”/ton (≈22% above the current $3,282). A sustained disruption of ~4 million bpd (~20%) through the Iran-controlled Strait of Hormuz could push Brent well above $100/bbl (Brent at $85). Gold could rally 5–10% toward a January high near $5,400. JPMorgan says tail-risk concerns for energy and metals will likely persist until the conflict subsides.
AI Analysis
Bullish bias because JPMorgan projects aluminum could reach ~$4,000/ton (≈22% above current $3,282) and gives specific disruption and price scenarios for oil (≈4M bpd disruption → Brent > $100 from $85) and gold (a 5–10% rally toward ~$5,400). Impact is moderate-high for traders because the note provides concrete supply/disruption figures and explicit price targets, but the moves are contingent on a potential military operation and ongoing tail-risk.
Expected Investor Sentiment: Bullish
Potential Market Impact: Significant
