CME FedWatch shows a 99.5% probability the Fed will hold rates at 3.50%–3.75% on April 29 and a 96.7% chance of another hold on June 17. WTI topped $110/barrel (Brent > $107), physical premiums rose and Strait of Hormuz disruptions plus coordinated IEA releases tightened supply. The Fed revised 2026 PCE to 2.7%; prediction markets (Polymarket ~36% no-cuts, Kalshi ~38.5%) and futures reflect reduced odds of cuts. Consumers face higher gas (near $4/gal) and mortgage rates (~6.38%). Jerome Powell’s term ends May 15, 2026; Kevin Warsh is nominated as his successor.

High-probability Fed holds (99.5% for April, 96.7% for June), a Fed revision of 2026 PCE to 2.7%, and oil topping $110/barrel with supply disruptions and higher consumer gas/mortgage costs are concrete, market-moving facts that reduce odds of rate cuts and tighten financial conditions.