TD Cowen says MSCI may remove publicly traded Bitcoin exposures like MicroStrategy in February with a formal decision mid‑January, calling the move “capricious.” Cowen warns exclusion could cause sustained selling; JPMorgan estimates MSCI alone could force $2.8B in passive outflows and up to $8.8B if other indexes follow. MicroStrategy’s market cap is about $59B with roughly $9B in passive holdings; shares have fallen over 60% since last November and mNAV is near 1.1. Cowen remains bullish long‑term (projects up to 815,000 BTC by 2027 and a $585 intrinsic target). Michael Saylor downplayed index risks and cited the company’s software and Bitcoin‑backed credit products. Bitcoin recently slid from ~ $126k to ~$88k; MSTR traded up ~4% at $177.47 on the report.

MSCI’s potential removal is expected to force passive index selling; JPMorgan quantifies $2.8B–$8.8B in possible outflows. MicroStrategy’s ~$59B market cap and ~$9B in passive holdings, recent >60% share decline, and mNAV ≈1.1 are concrete factors that support near‑term selling pressure. Cowen’s long‑term bullish forecasts and Saylor’s rebuttal are noted but do not negate the immediate outflow risk.