NVDA Earnings Briefly Pump Crypto, Then BTC Dumps to ~$82k as Fed Rate-Cut Bets Jump and Stocks Rise

first published 2025-11-20T07:25:28Z

CME Group's FedWatch shows the probability of a 25 bps Fed rate cut to a 3.50%-3.75% target range has fallen to 30%, down from 50% both a day and a week earlier and 98% a month ago. The drop follows a prolonged data blackout after the Labor Department said it would not release October jobs data due to the recent government shutdown. Minutes from the October Fed meeting revealed deep divisions among policymakers over whether to pause or cut rates. Bitcoin traded around $91,700, up 0.8% on the day.

AI Analysis

Probability of a December 25-bp cut declined sharply (50%→30% in a day; 98% a month ago); Labor Department withheld October jobs data due to the government shutdown; October Fed minutes showed deep policymaker divisions. These facts reduce near-term conviction about easing while the summary notes only a modest intraday BTC uptick (~0.8%).

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