Checkonchain estimates average bitcoin production cost at $88,000 per BTC while BTC traded near $69,200 on March 13, creating roughly a $19,000 gap (~21% loss per block). Network difficulty fell 7.76% to 133.79T and hashrate retreated to ~920 EH/s; hashprice is about $33.30/PH/s/day, near breakeven. Rising oil and electricity costs tied to Iran tensions have amplified miner stress, prompting increased miner selling and some public miners to diversify into AI/HPC. A further difficulty drop is expected in early April if BTC stays below production-cost levels.

Checkonchain cost model shows production cost $88,000 vs market price ~$69,200 (≈$19,000 gap, 21% loss); difficulty fell 7.76% to 133.79T and hashrate dropped to ~920 EH/s; hashprice near breakeven and miners are selling to cover costs, creating added supply pressure; energy cost increases tied to Iran conflict are cited as a driver. These facts point to near-term downside pressure on BTC.