Institutions and ETF-linked whales now make up ~50% of Bitcoin’s realized cap as they absorb selling while short-term supply spikes

first published 2025-12-20T11:00:00Z

On-chain data shows nearly half of Bitcoin’s realized cap is attributable to recent whale buyers—mainly institutions and ETFs—indicating much of BTC’s capital base formed at recent, higher prices. The realized-cap share from these new whales has risen even during pullbacks. Short-term supply (coins <155 days old) climbed ~100,000 BTC in 30 days to an all-time high while long-term holders remained largely inactive. Exchange flows show smaller participants supplied selling pressure and large wallets absorbed it; cumulative volume delta is +$135M for whales versus negative flows for retail and mid-sized traders. The report frames this as a structural shift toward sustained institutional accumulation, not a definitive short-term bullish or bearish signal.

AI Analysis

Facts: ~50% of realized cap now tied to recent whale buyers (institutions/ETFs); realized-cap share rising through pullbacks; short-term supply increased ~100k BTC to an ATH; long-term holders inactive; exchange flows show small participants sold while large wallets absorbed; cumulative volume delta +$135M for whales and negative for retail/mid. These facts imply net institutional accumulation but no clear short-term directional signal.

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