BTC-SP correlation turns positive; MicroStrategy resumed large BTC buys and spot demand moderates ~50% drawdown risk

first published 2026-03-22T12:11:52Z

The 20-week rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 flipped to ~0.13 from about -0.5. Historically since 2018 such flips preceded average BTC drawdowns of roughly 50%. BTC is down ~5.65% week-to-date to ~$68,700 while the S&P 500 fell 1.90%. Analysts cite macro pressures (higher oil, inflation, reduced odds of Fed cuts) and a pause in corporate accumulation—notably no recent BTC purchases tied to MicroStrategy—as increasing downside risk, with some forecasts projecting $30k–$40k in 2026.

AI Analysis

Correlation flipped positive (~0.13 from ~-0.5); historically those flips preceded ~50% BTC drawdowns. BTC is already down ~5.65% WTD to ~$68,700 while S&P500 fell 1.9%. Macro headwinds and a pause in corporate buying (no recent MicroStrategy purchases) are cited as additional downside drivers; some forecasts project $30k–$40k.

Source Articles