Chainalysis: Iranians shifting to self‑custody as exchanges see rapid outflows after US‑Israel strikes

first published 2026-03-03T13:18:26Z

Chainalysis identified a sharp spike in on‑chain outflows from major Iranian crypto exchanges between Feb. 28 and Mar. 2 totaling about $10.3 million, with hourly flows approaching or exceeding $2 million. The firm said it is too early to determine whether funds represent retail self‑custody moves, exchange liquidity cycling, or repositioning by state‑linked actors (including IRGC). The report cites related findings from Elliptic (Iran’s central bank acquired $507M in USDT largely via Nobitex) and TRM Labs (two UK exchanges moved $619.1M for the IRGC in 2024) and notes complicating factors such as internet outages, exchange/state‑controlled wallets, and prior hacks (e.g., Nobitex).

AI Analysis

Facts in the report: ~$10.3M in outflows from Feb. 28–Mar. 2 and hourly outflows near $2M; Chainalysis says it is too early to identify the actors behind flows; report references Elliptic’s $507M USDT purchase (via Nobitex) and TRM Labs’ $619.1M IRGC‑related movements in 2024; the report highlights confounding factors (internet outages, exchange/state‑controlled wallets, prior hacks). These facts imply possible sell or relocation pressure but high uncertainty, so limited immediate trading signal.

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