Analysis finds Ethena’s deployed capital — used as a proxy for excess long demand in futures — has fallen to about $791M (down >85% from its ATH). Since Bitcoin’s drop to $60,000 on Feb. 8, Ethena’s basis position declined more than 60% (from >$2B to under $800M). Ethena runs carry trades shorting perpetuals versus leveraged longs; the shrinking book indicates directional shorts and hedgers (crypto VCs, projects, structured products) are increasingly balancing the market. Analysts warn near-parity between longs and shorts has historically been unstable and could presage a major market inflection.

Deployed capital fell to ~$791M (>85% down from ATH) and basis positions dropped >60% (from >$2B to < $800M) since BTC hit $60k, indicating a collapse in leveraged long demand. Ethena’s model of shorting perpetuals against leveraged longs means a shrinking book shifts market balance toward shorts and hedgers; analysts flag near-parity as historically unstable and potentially leading to a market inflection.