Brent and WTI crude dropped about 3–5% after U.S. President Trump raised temporary import tariffs from 10% to 15%, prompting markets to reprice lower demand expectations. Easing Iran–U.S. nuclear tensions in Geneva reduced the geopolitical risk premium. Analysts said higher tariffs should weigh on trade, industrial activity and fuel consumption. Goldman Sachs still forecasts a 2026 oil market surplus and has revised its near-term WTI view. Short-term direction remains uncertain amid ongoing tariff policy, Iran diplomacy and the Russia–Ukraine conflict, implying continued volatility.

Prices fell ~3–5% after the U.S. raised temporary import tariffs from 10% to 15%, which analysts say will weigh on trade, industrial activity and fuel consumption; easing Iran–U.S. tensions also removed geopolitical risk premium; Goldman Sachs revised its near-term WTI view and still forecasts a 2026 surplus — these concrete developments justify a bearish outlook and a meaningful, trade-relevant impact.